25 November 2007

A Green Guerrilla Scenario

(Or the rational for a Global Patriot Act*)

by John Robb
"Eco-terrorism isn't new. It is, however, typically ineffective. This report points to another potential scenario. If eco-activists adopt
global guerrilla tactics, they could coerce a rapid move to clean energy alternatives. Small but extremely effective (high ROI) attacks on the energy corridors leading to target regions, would quickly increase the costs of conventional energy such that clean power alternatives would become extremely attractive.

This would be dictated by a direct economic comparison (costs) as well as indirect factors such as reliability of delivery. This systems sabotage tax would induce a tipping point in energy market equilibria towards green alternatives if it is extended over a long period (longer than one season) and is of a sufficient level.
See the brief
Urban Takedowns for more on how a terrorism tax can impact market equilibria. Other factors:

* Green guerrilla activity would likely be lost in the noise of fears of Islamic terrorism, particularly if the attacks aren't claimed and the groups are extremely small.

* There would be few casualties (if any). This would make these tactics more palatable to a larger audience of potential participants. This points to the potential of widespread activity from multiple ad hoc groups.

* Systems sabotage during peak usage periods would have an extremely large impact footprint. It would also radically increase the general awareness of energy usage. Cascades of failure induced by simple actions could sweep from Washington State to southern California and last for days. Everyone, from consumers to businesses, would feel the impact."
John Robb - Global Guerrillas

More by John Robb:
The CEO as an Objective of War
Market Disruption via Corporate Targeting
Target Investment

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